For this week’s segment of Around the Bases I’m adding a big of prospect flair to it. The call up of Yoan Moncada this week, as well as Carson Kelly yesterday, spurred me to take this route today. I thought about including Kelly in today’s post, but with him at the catcher position I didn’t think that was quite flashy enough to pair with the other guys.
Yoan Moncada vs Andrew Benintendi/Lewis Brinson/Amed Rosario
We all know Moncada is the #1 prospect in all of baseball, but how do we think he’ll pan out over his career? His minor league numbers show he should be real good. His brief glimpse of the big leagues last year might show otherwise. Moncada only played in 8 games last year with Boston at the end of the season, but it was said he looked a bit overmatched at the time. The extra 3 ½ months in the minors this year hopefully changed that for him. Being in the Midwest, and a White Sox fan, I got to see Moncada’s at-bats Wednesday night in his debut. He seems to have a great eye at the plate, which will go a long way at the big-league level. His eye for the strike zone is also emphasized in the 49 BB in 80 games at triple-A this year. During his minor league career he’s sporting a .285 average with 35 HR and 136 RBI across 267 games. As he progresses I expect to see his power numbers at the major-league level increase. I think Moncada will be a .290+ average hitter, 25 HR’s and 90+ RBI guy each season. The White Sox could have their second baseman set for a long time.
Yes, I mentioned going the prospect route here, but I wanted to throw Benintendi in because he isn’t all that far removed from the prospect list. He doesn’t have quite a year of service recorded yet, but he’s also given us a glimpse at the type of player he probably is going to be. Through 124 games at the major-league level Benintendi is hitting .276 with 14 HR and 66 RBI. Based on those numbers and his numbers in the minors I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect the same kind of line from him as to that of Moncada. Benintendi’s HR numbers will likely be lower, but the RBI total and average should be right around the same mark, though a lot of Benintendi’s RBI numbers will depend on where he gets slotted in the Boston lineup in the future. Call on the field: Both Moncada and Benintendi profile very similar and I actually like Benintendi a bit more because we’ve already seen him at the top level. I’m going to take Moncada here though, strictly based on position eligibility.
Lewis Brinson has a whopping 14 games under his belt, which is actually more experience than Moncada. He hasn’t had the best of luck so far, hitting a lack luster .097 through his first 14 games. The Brewers might have panicked a bit and promoted him a little early, but he has spent more than 5 years in the minors and put together good numbers will down there. The demotion roughly two weeks after his debut shows that maybe they thought the same thing. Through 533 games at the minor league level Brinson has a slash line of .288/.355/.502 with power numbers of 86 HR and 317 RBI, so we know he can hit. If the Brewers fall out of the race quickly I’d expect to see Brinson again, but I don’t see that happening. We may see Brinson again in September, but I think we’ll see more of what he can do come April of 2018. Call on the field: I think Brinson is going to be a good power source for the Brewers, but I think his average will dive because of that. Give me Moncada over Brinson.
The Mets are awful, yet we still haven’t seen the debut of their highly touted prospect, Amed Rosario. In parts of five seasons in the Mets farm system he’s dazzled, just as the players mentioned above have. Based off his minor league numbers I’d guess Rosario to be more a table setter rather than a big bat in the Mets lineup. He’ll likely be a top of the order bat, which will allow him to pile on the plate appearances. Through 445 games at various minor league levels Rosario’s slash line is .290/.336/.405 coupled with the power numbers of 17 HR’s and 200 RBI. That would translate to 6 HR’s and 70+ RBI over the course of 162 games. There’s nothing wrong with those numbers coming from a middle infielder. Roasrio has hit nearly half of his career HR’s in the minors this year (7) in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so perhaps those numbers are skewed a bit, but Rosario should be a fine player. Call on the field: Once again, I’ll take Moncada. Rosario would be a nice fit behind Moncada, but he doesn’t profile as the complete hitter Moncada is.
Here is how I’d rank these four today, but the top two could flip-flop fairly easily:
- Andrew Benintendi
- Yoan Moncada
- Amed Rosario
- Lewis Brinson
Yes, I know I mentioned I’d take Moncada over Benintendi, but I had to place Benintendi at the top based on what we’ve seen at the top level from him to this point.
All info courtesey of baseball-reference.com & ESPN.com